Second Summer in Leadville Today
Warm Now, But What’s Ahead?
“What an incredible day!”
“I’m loving this weather!”
“The crowds are gone, and the warmer days have returned – this is why I live in Leadville!”
Yep, it’s been purdy nice in America’s highest city, especially this past week. And by all accounts, it appears, the now ascribed “Second Summer,” season will remain, at least through the weekend. But enjoy it while you can, because the long-range reports were published this past week, and depending on which forecaster you believe, it’s either going to be cold and snowy this winter – or – it’s going to be very cold and very snowy in the months ahead.
Old School Almanac: “Season of Shivers”
Brrr! The 2022 Old Farmer’s Almanac comes with a winter warning: Prepare for a “Season of Shivers.”
“This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years,” says Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. For 230 years, the Almanac has been helping readers to prepare for winter’s worst with its 80 percent–accurate weather forecasts.
In some places, the super cold of the coming winter will also bring lots of snow. This extreme wintry mix is expected in areas of New England as well as throughout the Ohio Valley, in northern portions of the Deep South, and in southeast New Mexico.
Above-average snowfall is also in the forecast along a track from eastern Montana southward through the western halves of the Dakotas and into northeastern Colorado. While temperatures in this midcountry strip will be relatively normal, snowfall will be abundant, with several storms predicted throughout the winter.
Meanwhile, most western areas will remain relatively dry, with all but the Pacific Coast itself and portions of the Southwest experiencing the frigid cold predicted for much of the rest of the country.
How Does Almanac Predict Weather?
By tradition, The Old Farmer’s Almanac employs three scientific disciplines to make long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. They predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
Their forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies. Read more about how we predict the weather and see how accurate we were last winter.
For the 2021–2022 weather predictions, the important factors which shape the weather include a weak La Niña, a continued warm phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a neutral to positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. In addition, the earth is in the early stages of Solar Cycle 25, which is expected to bring very low solar activity—historically associated with cooler temperatures, on average, across Earth.
New Almanac: Strong Jan Storm in Colo.
Every year, The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac release their forecasts for the upcoming winter season before summer is even over. Both publications claim a time-tested formula to develop their forecasts, and year after year, both publications call for bitterly cold temperatures. This year, one almanac is calling for one of the “longest and coldest winters we’ve seen in years” while the other is calling for “polar coaster swings in temperatures.”
Most of the snow in both forecasts is focused across a stretch from eastern Montana down to Colorado and then through parts of the Midwest, Mid-South and Northeast. Their forecast calls for cooler than average temperatures east of the Rockies while the western third of the country will experience typical winter temperatures.
But when you sit almost at the top of the Continental Divide, there’s little doubt for even the newest of residents that winter will be cold and at 10, 152 feet, there will be snow.
While prognosticating “a season of flip-flop conditions with notable polar coaster swings in temperatures,” the almanac said Colorado could see a strong storm in January. That’s a prediction that both forecasters seem to agree on and it looks like it will be the third week in January 2022. Stay tuned!
City of Aurora: No Trespassing!
“The City of Aurora wanted you to be aware of some changes we are making on our Mount Elbert property located in Lake County,” the letter to the Lake County Board of Commissioners (BOCC) read.
“We decided to install signs and two gates on the property to improve awareness and visibility that it is private property,” read a copy of the letter which Leadville Today secured but was not released to the media or public by the BOCC. “We wanted to inform you of these changes in case you receive calls or complaints from the public.”
The gates and signs were installed in early August 2021 in the area known as Box Creek and where gold mining operations have been active for the past several years now. The letter continued, explaining that the purpose of these changes was to reduce trespassing by the public.
“We’ve been having a lot of campers and hunters using the property, which is causing issues with land degradation, pollution (trash and human waste), and we are concerned about fire danger,” the note explained.
Since then, the City of Aurora has installed two steel gates one at each end of Aurora’s property along the road. The main purpose of the signs and gates are to reduce risk to their property including liability, fire, soil compaction, forest stand damage, and human waste and litter.